50 Expert Picks
Baltimore can slug their way to a win at Great American and I think HGreene is a tad overrated and does not look as formidable this season. Birds plus money
Daniel Gafford’s impact in the first round has not been to the level many expected. His minutes per game average is down nearly eight minutes less from the regular season. Yet, he has cleared this points prop in two of the last three games. He was also the team leader in free throw attempts in game five. Take his over in game six.
Ozzie Albies has a 14-game hitting streak going, and he's gotten 2+ bases 11 times in that stretch with eight doubles and three other two-hit games. He gets to face a pitcher in Gavin Stone with massive righty/lefty splits, holding the former to a .504 OPS (59 PAs) while the latter lights him up for a .923 OPS (50 PAs). That's good news for the switch-hitting Albies, who owns an .895 OPS against righties this year. We shouldn't be getting plus odds here.
JP Sears got smoked in his last start in Baltimore but had been pitching well prior to that outing, with just one run allowed in 17.1 innings over his previous three starts. He has a fantastic matchup today in the friendly confines of Oakland Coliseum against the Marlins, who have just a .570 OPS against lefties this year. They have just one hitter with better than a .650 OPS in more than 10 plate appearances against southpaws, so there just aren't many trouble spots in this lineup for Sears to give up three earned runs.
The Twins have won 10 straight, and because of it, I think this money line is skewed. Those 10 wins were all against the White Sox and Angels, so be sure not to overrate them. The pitching matchup strongly favors the Red Sox, who are -125 on the F5 line, as Chris Paddack has pitched poorly aside from a gem against the lowly White Sox while Tanner Houck owns a 1.60 ERA and 41:5 K:BB ratio, allowing more than half of his earned runs this year in a single start. The Red Sox have won four of their last five and are 11-5 on the road, so I think this ML should be more of a 50/50 proposition at worst for Boston.
Freddie Freeman has hit just two home runs in 120 at-bats this season. He usually has big games after a day off because he's a student of the game and puts in a lot of work. Freeman is batting .500 with three home runs and 7 RBI in 20 career at-bats against Morton. I also like Freeman Over 1.5 hits + runs + RBI at -115. Dodgers have playoff revenge in this series.
Ronel Blanco has pitched well since his season-opening no-hitter, allowing two runs or fewer in every start while coming one out away in his last outing in Mexico City from throwing six-plus innings in all five starts as well. He's more than capable of reaching seven Ks against the worst strikeout offense in the league, one that has surrendered at least seven Ks to eight of the last nine opposing starters, including four times in five innings or less, and the only SP who didn't manage it in that stretch threw just 61 pitches. Any solid pitcher should be juiced to Over 6.5 Ks in this matchup.
Brady Singer has posted a strong 2.62 ERA massively aided by an unsustainable .209 BABIP, and this could be the matchup where he experiences some regression. The Rangers have an excellent 110 OPS+ against righties and Nathaniel Lowe has provided a boost since missing the first 21 games on the IL. The Royals also have a well-rested bullpen after Thursday's off-day was preceded by two games where relievers only covered two innings in each. Singer has struggled with walks of late (three issued in each of last three) and has only thrown five innings in three of his last four. I think that's a more reasonable expectation than the Over juice indicates.
Small play as I love these Cubs Friday matinees. They often have a major advantage with the quick turnaround but don't here as the Cubs played yesterday and Milwaukee didn't. Still, 10-3 at home. If the Brewers were starting anyone but Joe Ross on the mound, probably not. Craig Counsell's first game against his former club.
Cleveland’s Jarrett Allen is listed as questionable tonight. The Cavaliers are 8-15 SU as away underdogs, losing by an average of 7.48 points and have lost their last seven as dogs as well. They’ve lost down games in Orlando by 30.5 points while also doing under their team total in both contests. The Magic are 21-6 ATS as home favorites this season. This is a zig-zag theory type of series with home court meaning everything.
The Angels have lost 10 of their last 12 games despite just wrapping up a nine-game homestand, and now they hit the road to face one of MLB's best teams. Don't believe me? The Guardians are 16-6 in non-one run games, have a top-five run differential and are 11-7 against teams that are .500 or better. I don't think they're getting properly priced on the run line at home against an Angels team that's lost by two-plus runs in 15 of its 31 games and is now missing star slugger Mike Trout.
Martin Perez is quietly having a solid season in Pittsburgh and his underlying metrics suggest he's running cold in the strikeout department. Perez is averaging the highest CSW% of his 13 year career. He gets a favorable matchup against a dismal Rockies team that has been terrible on the road and possesses the 7th highest K rate against opposing southpaws. Considering Perez's outs prop is set at 17.5, if he gets in 6 IP today, I believe he has a great chance of racking up 5 Ks.
Jose Quintana has not pitched to the level of his 3.48 ERA, as a 6.00 xERA clearly shows. But this is a good spot for him to throw at least six innings. For starters, the Mets needed 98 pitches from their bullpen in an 11-inning win yesterday and have used at least four relievers for three straight days, meaning they should look to give the bullpen a little bit of a break today if possible. Quintana has a great matchup against a Rays offense that has just a 78 OPS+ (100 is average) against lefty pitchers this year, so it's an even better spot than the Rays' 3.75 runs/game average suggests. I think Quintana gets through six full innings in this situation.
So when I write the daily newsletter for subscribers (sign up!), I include the trends at books in terms of whom is betting what. Get all those in a feed. Is RSS still a thing? Bobby Witt Under 1.5 hits is the No. 1 most-wagered hits market prop at DK. I don't often tail but I do like to see what people are doing in case I missed something. Witt a very good player who has multiple hits in back-to-back games but not George Brett. And he's 0-for-5 off Texas starter Michael Lorenzen. This is just math. If Witt doesn't get a hit in the first inning ... well it's Breaking 2: Electric Boogaloo time.
This series has been incredibly physical, and the defensive ferocity has really upped its game of late. That, plus Jeremy Swayman and Joseph Woll are playing lights out between the pipes. It all adds up to an under here in Game 7. No game has yet gone over six goals, so feel free to buy this up to a flat 6 if you'd like some insurance. Three straight have gone under 5.5, including two straight 2-1 contests. A similar pace seems in store here.